The European Commission targets provisional application from spring. The European Parliament refers the deal to the Court of Justice. Argentina becomes the first country to approve in parliament. Three processes running simultaneously โ the world's largest free trade zone hangs in the balance.
On 21 January 2026, the European Parliament voted 334-324-11 to refer the EU-Mercosur agreement to the Court of Justice โ the first time in history the EP has taken this step with a trade deal. What will the Court examine and how long will it take?
The United States and Argentina have signed a bilateral trade pact that directly competes with the EU-Mercosur deal. For Europe, it's a wake-up call: finalise the deal quickly, or risk losing ground in one of the world's fastest-growing markets.
On 13 February 2026, Argentina's Chamber of Deputies approved the EU-Mercosur deal 203-42-4, becoming the first country in the world to grant parliamentary approval. The Peronist opposition split โ 43 deputies voted yes against party line.
On 2 February 2026, Lula formally sent the EU-Mercosur agreement to Congress. VP Alckmin announced fast-track. Brazil โ 70%+ of Mercosur GDP โ is key to the deal entering force. Meanwhile, Mercosur opens talks with China.
The European Commission plans provisional application of the EU-Mercosur deal from spring 2026, despite Parliament's referral to the Court of Justice. Lawyers are divided, the Council is ready, and EUR 4 billion per year in tariff savings hangs in the balance.
In February 2026, Brazil signalled the opening of Mercosur-China trade talks. A third front alongside the EU and US. For Europe, the message is clear: delays have real geopolitical consequences.
27 EU countries, drastically different interests. The Council greenlit the deal on 9 January โ 21 in favour, 5 against, Belgium abstained. France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary voted against. Germany, Spain and the Netherlands lead the supporters.
The Trump-Milei trade pact opens cracks in the protection of European geographical indications in Argentina. If the US gains freedom to use names like 'Parmesan' or 'Feta', the EU-Mercosur protections come into question.
The EU-Mercosur deal includes 99,000t beef (7.5% tariff), 180,000t poultry (duty-free), 180,000t sugar quotas โ with a 2:1 beef price gap (EU โฌ7.28/kg vs Brazil โฌ3.25/kg). Protests from Paris to Madrid. EP tightened the Art. 9.3 safeguard to 5%/5% triggers. Copa-Cogeca: 'betrayal'.
Poland voted against the deal in the EU Council on 9 January 2026, but the balance sheet is complex. Poultry (2.9M tonnes, EU's #1) faces 180,000t duty-free Mercosur quota. Yet machinery exports (EUR 449M), fertilisers (Grupa Azoty โ Brazil) and ลปubrรณwka GI protection offer real gains. Near-unanimous Polish MEP support for CJEU referral.
The European Commission targets provisional application from spring 2026. What exactly enters immediately โ tariffs, quotas, geographical indications โ and what must wait for full ratification by 27 parliaments? The CETA precedent and the Art. 218(11) TFEU legal dispute.
Macron declared: 'La France ne votera pas l'accord.' France is the loudest critic of EU-Mercosur. Agriculture drives the opposition, but it runs deeper โ identity, food sovereignty, and domestic politics all play a role.
