Three Institutions, Three Speeds, One Deal
Twenty-five years of negotiations. Over 700 million consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. A free trade zone spanning 31 countries. And three institutions pulling it in completely different directions at the same time.
The European Commission wants provisional application running by spring 2026. The European Parliament has referred the deal to the EU's top court. And in Buenos Aires, Argentina's Congress is ratifying โ first in the world.
Who gets to the finish line first?
Timeline since the signing
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2026 | EU Council approves signing (21-5, Belgium abstains) | Qualified majority reached |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Deal signed in Asunciรณn, Paraguay | 25 years of negotiations formally concluded |
| 21 Jan 2026 | EP votes 334-324-11 to refer deal to CJEU | Unprecedented โ no trade deal has ever been sent to the Court |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Reuters: Commission targets March for provisional application | EU diplomat confirms accelerated timeline |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Brazil submits deal to Congress | Lula aims for ratification in H1 2026 |
| 5 Feb 2026 | EP adopts agricultural safeguard regulation (483-102) | Shield for EU farmers enters force |
| 5-6 Feb 2026 | US and Argentina sign bilateral trade pact | Trump and Milei slash tariffs โ pressure on EU |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Milei submits EU-Mercosur deal to Argentine Congress | Argentina fast-tracks ratification |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Argentine Chamber of Deputies approves (203-42-4) | First parliament in the world to vote 'yes' |
Three tracks, one goal
The Commission accelerates
Von der Leyen meeting Lula in Rio de Janeiro, the day before the signing: 'Between Europe and Brazil, the best is yet to come.'
On 22 January, an EU diplomat told Reuters that the Commission is targeting provisional application from March 2026. The mechanism is straightforward โ the EU-Mercosur deal is a so-called mixed agreement. Some provisions (trade, tariffs, services) fall under exclusive EU competence. Others (investment, political cooperation) require national parliament approval.
Provisional application covers only the EU-competence parts โ it needs a Council decision, not 27 national legislatures. Article 23.3 of the agreement states that provisional application begins on the first day of the second month after the parties have notified each other of their completed internal procedures.
For business: the first tariff cuts could land this spring.
Parliament raises the bar
334 MEPs voted to refer the deal to the Court of Justice. 324 against. 11 abstained.
A historic first โ the European Parliament has never referred a trade agreement to the CJEU. The legal basis: Article 218(11) TFEU, which bars Parliament from giving consent until the Court delivers its opinion.
The Court will examine:
- Whether splitting the deal into an 'EU-only' Interim Trade Agreement (ITA) and a 'mixed' Partnership Agreement (EMPA) is compatible with EU treaties
- Whether climate protections are adequate
- Whether the deforestation enforcement mechanism is effective
A CJEU opinion typically takes 12-18 months. The key legal question: does the referral block provisional application? The Commission says no โ provisional application requires a Council decision, not parliamentary consent. Some MEPs insist otherwise. Legal scholars are divided.
Separately, on 5 February the EP adopted the agricultural safeguard regulation by 483 to 102. The trigger: if imports of sensitive products (beef, poultry, sugar, citrus) rise by 5% on a three-year rolling average and prices drop 5% below domestic levels, the EU can suspend tariff preferences. Monitoring reports every three months instead of six โ tougher than the Commission originally proposed.
Mercosur pushes ahead
Argentina is furthest along. On 13 February, the Chamber of Deputies approved the deal 203-42-4. The ruling La Libertad Avanza party secured backing from PRO, UCR, and โ remarkably for Argentina's polarised politics โ 43 deputies from the Peronist Uniรณn por la Patria. The Senate vote is expected within two weeks.
Brazil submitted the agreement to Congress on 2 February. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced a "fast-track legislative process." A lower house vote is expected by late February.
Uruguay submitted on 10 February. Paraguay is briefing Congress. The Mercosur strategy is clear: ratify fast, give the Commission ammunition to launch provisional application despite Parliament's pushback.
The scorecard
For (Council vote, 9 January): Germany (Chancellor Merz actively championed it), Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, the Nordics. Italy joined after securing extra guarantees for geographical indications. 21 of 27 member states.
Against: France, Poland, Austria, Ireland, Hungary. Macron declared the day before the vote: 'France will vote against signing the agreement' โ adding that he would fight for farmer protections regardless of the outcome. Belgium abstained.
Five votes against were not enough to form a blocking minority. France and Poland lacked the population weight to stop it. The automotive industry (ACEA) estimates EUR 4 billion in annual tariff savings on cars, machinery and parts.
An added layer of tension: the US-Argentina trade pact signed on 5-6 February. Trump and Milei slashing tariffs bilaterally raises questions about Argentina's commitment to Mercosur's common external tariff โ and piles pressure on the EU not to let its own deal stall.
What the agreement says
Article 23.2 โ entry into force:
'This Agreement shall enter into force [...] on the first day of the month following the date on which they have notified each other in writing of the completion of their respective internal procedures required for this purpose.'
But Article 23.3 provides for provisional application โ starting the trade provisions between the EU and any Mercosur country that has completed its internal procedures, without waiting for the others. That is the exact door the Commission wants to walk through โ and the one Parliament is trying to shut via the CJEU.
What happens next?
The coming weeks will set the tempo. If the Council greenlights provisional application before the CJEU opinion, the first tariff cuts could arrive this spring. If the Court issues an interim order freezing the process, the deal goes on ice until 2027 or 2028.
A third scenario exists: the CJEU finds the ITA/EMPA split incompatible with EU treaties. That means renegotiating key provisions โ a setback measured in months or years.
For now, three trains are running on three tracks. The Commission is accelerating. Parliament is braking. Mercosur is moving ahead regardless of what happens in Brussels.
What does it mean for you?
Exporting to South America? Tariffs on cars (35%) and machinery (14-20%) will fall gradually over 15 years. Companies that prepare early will benefit first.
In agriculture? The safeguard regulation provides concrete protection โ a 5% trigger on a three-year average, quarterly reports, provisional measures within 14 days of an investigation opening. A tougher shield than what the Commission originally proposed.
Consumer? Cheaper coffee, wine and tropical fruit โ all meeting EU safety standards. The question is not whether, but when.
Sources: Reuters (22 Jan 2026), Consilium.europa.eu (9 Jan 2026), europarl.europa.eu (21 Jan, 5 Feb 2026), AP, MercoPress (13 Feb 2026), NPR (6 Feb 2026), Valor Internacional, Politico.eu. Agreement: Art. 23.2, Art. 23.3, Art. 9.3.
โThis Agreement may be provisionally applied. Such provisional application may take place between, on the one part, the European Union and, on the other part, one or more of the Signatory MERCOSUR States in accordance with their respective internal procedures.โ
โ Chapter 23 - General and Final Provisions, Article 23.3